Two New Leaders & Election In October

1oct

Labour and Conservative Will Have New Leaders

So anyone got the first clue what just happened? Or what we voted for? Or what we voted against? Or when I’m going to stop asking questions? Whoops I did it again as Brittany once sang. I make this two referenda/ums (argue amongst yourselves) running that we’ve been asked stupid and incomplete questions and not had a clue how to answer. I want to write about Brexit more fully on Monday so lest’s concentrate on the election, What were we being asked to vote for? Apparently it was Strong and Stable government as repeated ad nauseam in answer to absolutely anything. now as this was the slogan of the government of the day if it wasn’t Strong and Stable already why would it more Strong and Stable after an election? Come on, it was an answer to a question nobody had asked until Team Theresa did.

May is toast. She reminds me very much of Hilary Clinton, convinced it was her entitlement to lead the country without a single clear platform or principle to fall back on.  They both ran campaigns based on cult of personality, when it was painfully obvious she hadn’t got one, what were the Tories thinking? I mean Boris Johnson you could understand “tally ho chaps, crikey, hook me up on the fly wires” and we’d all have a jolly good giggle because, well, it’s good old Boris always good for laugh. I’m afraid the rictus smile of May frozen in horror at the sight of the hoi polloi was never likely to go down as well and it didn’t. Don’t even get me started on the manifesto, which seemed designed to come up with a reason not to vote Tory on every policy you read. It wasn’t only the public that wasn’t good enough for May neither was her party’s name, so it was rechristened Team Theresa, except the team was rarely on display.

I don’t know how or when May will go, but go she must. I do know it will be before party conference and that means there must be an election. I’m not sure even the Tories, or whatever they’re planning to call themselves next time, would try to pull the unelected trick again given how things have panned out. May will be allowed to form a new cabinet and either resign or await multiple knives in the back. The newly anointed leader can then go on to conference, get the obligatory standing ovation and declare one election to unite them all. They may even explain what they’re uniting for but as united means united I shan’t hold my breath. The one person it won’t be is Boris, not a chance.

Et tu Jeremy? I think there is a good chance Jeremy will resign before conference and ascend to say Honorary President of the Labour Party, after all he’s always wanted one. He will still play a major role in policy and a big part in the October campaign and why shouldn’t he? He will be strong enough to get the rules changes he needs to get the next leader he wants. I have a feeling that this vote for me I’m the messiah malarkey might not play twice… says the guy who predicted a Tory majority of 40, but in my defence I did say unless the young voted. The figure for the under 25 voters is in some dispute but 72% has been mooted, that is phenomenal historically speaking I didn’t believe it could happen. In the same way I take my hat off to Nigel Farage, one man made that happen and that was Corbyn, credit where it’s due.

The Tories have the best of this deal, if indeed this new schism is between old and young, if it is it shouldn’t be. The young are ever evolving and changing and doing boring stuff like growing up. They change their minds, are open to new ideas and are far more amenable to risk. It is far harder to change the minds of the old and it seems a majority are wedded to the Tories. The two biggest differences in these demographics are the narrative they receive and outlook on life. The old are far more likely to have a tabloid narrative or a broadsheet small c conservatism whilst the young have social media and all things internet. Those that have controlled the narrative for decades are fighting back “take back control” has a whole other meaning for them. Bear in mind these are crude generalisations there are always exceptions.

One point I have not missed is the fact that Labour lost so why does it feel like they won? The achievement of Labour was greater and I’m indebted to Guardian writer and blogger Ally Fogg for the following. The election was called by the Tories to inflict maximum damage to Labour at a time over half the country said May was best for Brexit. This put Labour on the backfoot immediately and damage limitation seemed the best option. The Parliamentary Party was openly hostile to Corbyn, as was the left leaning press, such as it is. As for the tabloids the character assassaination they indulged was without precedent and completely beyond the pale, talk about playing the man not the ball. Total annihilation of Labour was the only sane conclusion to reach. Labour not only gained seats they, handed Theresa May her death warrant.

Ally is more optimistic than I about Labours future, I think this may well be the high water mark as far as Corbynism goes. Then again I thought Labour holding it’s ground this time round would be an achievement. I do know about selling though and selling to the young needs a constant state of renewal, what better way than to prepare for the inevitable election than a new new leader, backed by the upholder of Labour collective values? OK it is far more likely that Corbyn would serve, if elected, a portion of his term although I have no way of knowing how long he’d wish to go on for.

I wish he would adopt more modern economic policies as outlined on my aims page but I haven’t written it yet.

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